Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 74%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 4 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 4 Apr 2026 to 7 Apr 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 60% on 6 Apr 2026 and the lowest 26% on 7 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 26% on 7 Apr 2026. $209.33 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 8, 6:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 4 Apr 2026 – 7 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | 49.5% |
| 7 Apr 2026 | 26.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bjprolo | Yes | 25 |
| ZKN | Yes | 13.29 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| technobeats | Yes | 3.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/over-400-us-flights-cancelled-on-april-6
| 223345sw | Yes | 3.41 |
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