
Resolved No on 9 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.3%. Yes opened at 17% on 11 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 220 daily closes on record from 11 Nov 2025 to 9 Jul 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.3% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 38.3% on 29 Mar 2026. $113.84K traded over the market's life.
80 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 10, 1:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 220 points, 11 Nov 2025 – 9 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2025 | 17.0% |
| 9 Jul 2026 | 6.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wettsucht | Yes | 505.56 |
| lissartter | Yes | 300 |
| schiggy | No | 222.36 |
OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments. This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through which the U.S. federal government assumes or commits to assume partial or full repayment risk on OpenAI debt. Tax credits, depreciation benefits, or grants not tied to a specific debt transaction will not qualify. The debt transaction which receives a government backstop must be primarily aimed at the development, building, or manufacturing of AI infrastructure. The primary source of resolution will be information from Open AI and the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-receives-federal-backstop-for-infrastructure-before-july
| zz9degen | Yes | 200.6 |
| vaccinejl | Yes | 187.62 |
| Indigo Pioneer B7DA | Yes | 141.36 |
| Golden Raven C1BD | Yes | 141.1 |
| Bright Harbor 2AAF | Yes | 130.63 |
| JenniferWood4414 | Yes | 116.67 |
| poliwacho | Yes | 107.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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