Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 52% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 368 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 60% on 27 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 60% on 27 Jan 2025. $22.29K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 368 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 52.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ujaKanga | Yes | 455.96 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254.94 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 191.67 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if One Direction either performs together, releases new music as a group, or publicly announces they will do either of these things by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement that One Direction will perform together or release new music as a group before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when they actually do so. Qualifying performances include live events, televised appearances, online streaming, etc. Releases include any single, EP, or album credited to "One Direction." All living members of the group must be part of an event for it to qualify as a reunion. The resolution source will be an announcement from One Direction or its official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/one-direction-reunion-in-2025
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 179 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 170 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 164.99 |
| lissartter | Yes | 85.01 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 67.74 |
| bistrogons | Yes | 40 |
| OptimizedOutputs | Yes | 39.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
