Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 15 Feb 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 7% on 8 Feb 2026. $156.52K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 15 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 18.5% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolJim | Yes | 5K |
| danzoren | Yes | 4.31K |
| Snow-White | Yes | 1.96K |
| news-trader | Yes | 1.07K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any one-hour period between market creation and February 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-us-strikes-iran-in-february-over-50-by-feb-13 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a one-hour window. This will display a one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/odds-of-us-strikes-iran-in-february-over-50-by-feb-13
| gemini3bot | Yes | 766.67 |
| Content-Faith | Yes | 431.21 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 200 |
| MixlorianBOT | Yes | 170 |
| lokucx | Yes | 166.44 |
| lichong358 | Yes | 165 |
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