Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$348.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld leaders

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 28 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 14.5%. Yes opened at 58% on 20 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 58% on 20 Feb 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 35% on 21 Feb 2026. $348.73K traded over the market's life.

39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Feb 2026	58.0%
28 Feb 2026	14.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Downright-Campaign	No	20K
Second-Puddle	No	8.61K
Sweet-Breath	No	3.5K

10 of 39 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-30 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.