Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 7 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 329 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.3% on 29 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.5%; a month before, 1.6%.
$774.29 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $24.51K since listing. The order book holds $30.91K, with a 3.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 316 trades, $741.39 bought Yes and $5.06K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Cobalt Horizon D769 with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 71.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 9:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 329 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 10.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 2.33K |
| Cobalt Horizon D769 | Yes | 1.83K |
| GTOrski1 | No | 1.57K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/obama-arrested-before-2027
| Tommybet71 |
| Yes |
| 879.67 |
| Nynex420 | Yes | 463.65 |
| Idontknow | No | 434.69 |
| TruePoliticsMan | Yes | 427.1 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 393.15 |
| bZk0Uo | No | 318.12 |
| AJSV | Yes | 295.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
