Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.3%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 75 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 4 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.9% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 5% on 22 Dec 2025.
154 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 11:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 4 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 24.5% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 4.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| unseenfire5 | Yes | 24.84K |
| PV10 | Yes | 6.16K |
| 0xPolymarketAnon | Yes | 5.82K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562
| Yes |
| 5.78K |
| purpleeater | Yes | 4.46K |
| Chiwiwis | Yes | 4.33K |
| KnureKnume | Yes | 4K |
| seoul | Yes | 3.92K |
| Young-Pearl | Yes | 3.69K |
| Solalpha | Yes | 3.39K |
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