Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 78.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 50% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 9.5% on 6 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 20% on 22 Dec 2025.
89 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 11:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 21.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562
| Yes |
| 2K |
| Powerless-Conservation | Yes | 1.79K |
| Solalpha | Yes | 1.17K |
| RomeoReflection | Yes | 1.06K |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 699.98 |
| Vivacious-Mister | Yes | 509.34 |
| benrafa | Yes | 452.44 |
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