Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 15, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$133.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 15, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 15 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 51% on 20 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2025 to 15 Sep 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 9 Sep 2025 and the lowest 34.5% on 29 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 58 points up, to 99.8% on 9 Sep 2025. $133.9K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 16, 4:50 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 20 Aug 2025 – 15 Sep 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Aug 2025	51.0%
15 Sep 2025	99.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
gopfan2	No	5.96K
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	1.04K
btzrx1000	No	519.38
BobTheBobber	No	400

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Norway on September 8, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Progress Party (FrP) wins 22% or more of all valid votes in the next Norwegian parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next Norwegian parliamentary election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Norway's government (e.g. via https://www.valg.no/en/).