Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 153 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2025 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 10.5% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jul 2025. $74.1K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 153 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 2 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | 10.5% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gillet | Yes | 3.88K |
| Ladysolsol | Yes | 2.05K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: South Korea's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not part of the military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-x-south-korea-military-clash-by
| Yes |
| 358.48 |
| 0xjumpman | Yes | 352 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 65 |
| rektbiach | Yes | 41.92 |
| makemoneyhoney | Yes | 15 |
| solidi | No | 1.06 |
| BigSmolE | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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