Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 29% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 16 Nov 2025, the highest close was 29% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 16 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 12.5% on 10 Nov 2025. $103.14K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 17, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 16 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | 29.0% |
| 16 Nov 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NAA | Yes | 2.83K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.53K |
| Failing-Subsidiary | Yes | 384.91 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 233 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-launch-by-november-15-879
| lissartter | Yes | 186.47 |
| PublicMilk | Yes | 177.33 |
| Judicious-Neuropsychiatry | Yes | 167.5 |
| spirtx | Yes | 142.85 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 125 |
| Aneurys | Yes | 119.72 |
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