Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 11 May 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 25.5% on 12 May 2026. $70.47K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 6:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 25.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1.5K |
| mihaimi | Yes | 521.17 |
| newnewuser | Yes | 504.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/no-confidence-vote-against-starmer-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 382.5 |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 300 |
| Ivory Raven CF09 | Yes | 287.44 |
| 4751346 | Yes | 193.46 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 163.08 |
| Flaggermusmannen | Yes | 149.93 |
| monkeydavid | Yes | 111.11 |
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