Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 29 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 20 Sep 2026.
Across the 33 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25.5%; a month before, 43.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 25% on 21 Sep 2026.
No change ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Bank of Japan Decision in December?”. 25 bps increase leads at 77.5%; 50+ bps increase is at 2%.
$133.26 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.88K since listing. The order book holds $1.64K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 287 trades, $878.36 bought Yes and $1.43K bought No.
The largest Yes position is AiBird with 504 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 84.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 18 Dec 2026, 49 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 8:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 43.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.92K |
| AiBird | Yes | 503.85 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 385.16 |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-december-20260918
| donthackme |
| Yes |
| 262.75 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 178.43 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 124.32 |
| Jealous-Vitro | Yes | 110 |
| zeitfi-vault-v2 | Yes | 100.25 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 90.11 |
| haouibao | Yes | 85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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