Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 14 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 3.7% on 15 Dec 2025 and the low 0.4% on 16 Dec 2025. $38.78K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 14 Dec 2025 – 16 Dec 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | 3.5% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.56K |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | Yes | 7.6K |
| tetrose | Yes | 5.91K |
| rated | Yes | 2.52K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 1.38K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 862 |
| paspor | Yes | 371.56 |
| shine | Yes | 370.9 |
| NoMoreMister | Yes | 325.68 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 272 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-us-strike-on-syria-on
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