Analytics
Yes is at 57%, up 8.5 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 30% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 59.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 51% on 10 Oct 2026.
January 31 is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by...?”, ahead of November 30 at 45%.
$341.73 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $170.98, with a 72.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 with 20 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 54.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 98 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 26 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 57.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 54.27 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| Flingflonger | Yes | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Medium model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Medium" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Medium 3.1 or Mistral Medium 3.5 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Medium 4. A new Mistral Medium model released after Mistral Medium 3.5 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-medium-2508, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 3.5 or below, such as Mistral Medium 3.5 (released April 28, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Medium," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Mistral AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Mistral AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-mistral-medium-3pt6-released-byptptpt
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 16 |
| Muted-Accuracy | No | 5 |
| prizr | Yes | 4 |
| Anguished-Killer | No | 0.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
