Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50% on 8 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 61% on 1 May 2025 and the low 0.3% on 21 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 61% on 1 May 2025. $692.18K traded over the market's life.
159 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 261 points · 8 Apr 2025 – 23 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Apr 2025 | 50.0% |
| 23 Dec 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 32.49K |
| provingit | Yes | 7.14K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 2.83K |
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025
| caecilian | Yes | 1.33K |
| fead | Yes | 782.84 |
| Rpprstrppr | Yes | 588.24 |
| Vinc22 | Yes | 566.16 |
| .zero | Yes | 500 |
| Moniesman48 | Yes | 454.55 |
| volvo | Yes | 333.33 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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