Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 74%. Yes opened at 68% on 5 Mar 2025. Before it settled, the high was 74% on 30 Apr 2025 and the low 16.5% on 11 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 74% on 30 Apr 2025. $679.82K traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 5 Mar 2025 – 30 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2025 | 68.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 74.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JoseTU | No | 2.8K |
| Jerzy | No | 1.87K |
| TimeTraveler | No | 1.7K |
| indeoo | No | 1.3K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" for Q1 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on April 30, 2025, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the "Advance Estimate" will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
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