NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$173.5K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 30% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 31.5% on 14 Sep 2025 and the lowest 1.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 31.5% on 14 Sep 2025. $173.46K traded over the market's life.

76 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Sep 2025	30.0%
1 Oct 2025	1.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
AlexPro	Yes	13.85K
tupac	Yes	2.34K
tsihkodiives	Yes	1.59K
baxeico	Yes	1.45K

10 of 76 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on September 10. For more information see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between September 11 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.