Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20% on 5 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2024 to 1 Mar 2025, the highest close was 20% on 5 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 7.5% on 6 Dec 2024. $738.48K traded over the market's life.
253 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 5, 8:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 5 Dec 2024 – 1 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2024 | 20.0% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | 0.1% |
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between December 3, 2024, and February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-march
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 456.82 |
| Miksupra | Yes | 455.17 |
| Dafeeee | Yes | 222.22 |
| steelS | Yes | 166.67 |
| NotDaniel | Yes | 99.99 |
| ELMAPO | Yes | 99.8 |
| chewy55 | Yes | 71.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
