Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 19% on 12 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 12 Jun 2024 to 8 Jul 2024, the highest close was 40% on 30 Jun 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 8 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 22.5% on 1 Jul 2024. $85.14K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 9, 2:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 12 Jun 2024 – 8 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2024 | 19.0% |
| 8 Jul 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JVPontifex | Yes | 230 |
| lavalux | Yes | 160.72 |
| Fripiz | Yes | 24.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly. This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election. Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/national-rally-coalition-wins-a-majority-of-seats-in-french-election
| Yes |
| 0.02 |
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