Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 66.5%. Yes opened at 90% on 5 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 15 Jan 2026, the highest close was 93.5% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 66.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 78.5% on 13 Jan 2026. $40.36K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 15 Jan 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 90.0% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 66.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher.w | No | 9.42K |
| C37823 | No | 1.34K |
| primrose2 | No | 499.99 |
| supermarky | No | 487.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
As of market creation, Morgan Stanley is estimated to release earnings on January 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Morgan Stanley's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.42 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Morgan Stanley reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.42 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Morgan Stanley releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ms-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-01-15-2026-2pt42
| Beaulieusurmer | No | 372.02 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 362.99 |
| SA-7 | No | 287.03 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 259.99 |
| slevinknows | No | 170 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
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