Analytics
Yes is at 50%, down 3.5 points from 53.5% when the market opened on 17 Jun 2026.
Across the 128 daily closes on record from 17 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74.5% on 23 Jun 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 15 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 71%; a month before, 69%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 14.5% on 15 Jul 2026.
$175.07 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $82.86, with a 78.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 65 shares; the largest No position is TonyEsse with 28.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 128 points, 17 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2026 | 53.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 64.95 |
| TonyEsse | No | 27.77 |
| bechamel | No | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Intesa Sanpaolo, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo and must not be restricted to only the subsidiaries of either company. An announcement by MPS or Intesa Sanpaolo within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026-20260612212324741
| Whole-Mustard |
| No |
| 10 |
| 64sdfs | No | 7.18 |
| Coral Beacon 7E5B | No | 3.7 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 3.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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