Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 16 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 139 daily closes on record from 16 Aug 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 8.5% on 16 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2024. $205.36K traded over the market's life.
133 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 1:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 16 Aug 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2024 | 8.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| beans2312312 | Yes | 1.5K |
| phroge | Yes | 1.2K |
| rickogo | Yes | 390.71 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial Monkeypox (Mpox) Clade 1 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/monkeypox-lab-leak-confirmed-by-us-in-2024
New to prediction markets?
| No |
| 150 |
| Emannuel | Yes | 104.02 |
| Twizzler | Yes | 80.01 |
| PolyDump | Yes | 79.95 |
| Tizi14 | Yes | 67.61 |
| Indigo Pioneer 5DFB | Yes | 66.83 |
| zulf | Yes | 58.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
