Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 39.5%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 12 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2026 to 17 Oct 2026, the highest close was 54% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 43% on 16 Oct 2026. $34.22K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 12:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 12 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 2026, chart shows 35%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | 44.5% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 39.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| suleng66 | No | 5.73K |
| Schnoodled | No | 4.32K |
| Intrepid-Gingerbread-Hexagon | No | 2.83K |
| purplegatto | No | 840.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This event refers to Game 4 of the ALCS originally scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. This game has been rescheduled to October 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Please refer to mlb.com for the latest start time information. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for October 17 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Tampa Bay Rays or Cleveland Guardians. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-cle-2026-10-16
| Solar Comet 400B | No | 614.04 |
| soliquido | No | 256.27 |
| fm40 | No | 137.93 |
| Roli09 | No | 119.95 |
| jewel-bundren | No | 74.78 |
| Bagwell306 | No | 49 |
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