Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.3%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 14 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 24 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 22 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 26.5% on 15 Mar 2026.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 25, 3:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 24 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | 48.5% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 2.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 490.49 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 150 |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-iran-ends-by
| kamtheman | Yes | 8.53 |
| Hinshaw | Yes | 5 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 5 |
| rikitikitaki | Yes | 5 |
| hr26g2re62de | Yes | 0.01 |
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