Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 41% on 28 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2026 to 2 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 28 Mar 2026 and the lowest 12% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 12% on 29 Mar 2026. $13.69K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 15, 9:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 2 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 41.0% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BAO95889 | Yes | 444.54 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 116.92 |
| VivaLaRaza | Yes | 83.48 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/military-action-against-iran-ends-by-522
| 0xMIX | Yes | 30 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 19.88 |
| Shark91 | Yes | 5 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 5 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 5 |
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