Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 10%, down 60 points from 70% when the market opened on 5 Dec 2025.
The high was 74% on 30 Apr 2026 and the low 8.5% on 22 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 11%; a month ago, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 27.5% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?”.
$4.75K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.81K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 347 trades, $433.59 bought Yes and $810.42 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 102 shares; the largest No position is polyproguy with 289. Ten wallets hold 72.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 287 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 14 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 70.0% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| polyproguy | No | 288.73 |
| absol | No | 111.11 |
| AJSV | Yes | 102.4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by
| Numitus1994 |
| Yes |
| 102 |
| STEXRESPECTER | Yes | 100 |
| Anon5566 | No | 81.51 |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 75.61 |
| Amber Scout C64F | Yes | 70.9 |
| Ma-sk | No | 56 |
| nicoco89 | Yes | 54.94 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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