Megaquake in November?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$63.3K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 7 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 7 Nov 2024 to 1 Dec 2024, the highest close was 7.5% on 7 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2024. $63.27K traded over the market's life.

426 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 7:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 7 Nov 2024 – 1 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
7 Nov 2024	7.5%
1 Dec 2024	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Djgdj	Yes	976.02
Patrioti	Yes	583.25
daleksandrov	Yes	114.97
Snifkin	Yes	68.32

10 of 426 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between November 5 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until December 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.