What is the “Megaquake in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Megaquake in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between February 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($414.68K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 71 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 86.5% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jul 31, 8:44 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/megaquake-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Megaquake in 2025? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Megaquake in 2025? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencemegaquake-in-2025Updated Jul 31, 2025

Closed

Scheduled close Dec 31, 2025

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

24h Volume

$414.7K

Scheduled close

Dec 31, 2025

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jul 31, 2025

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jul 31, 2025

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

86%

Yes / No shares

158.16 / 2.07K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

223

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Jul 30, 12:00 AM

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jul 30, 12:00 AM	94.0%	94.0%
Jul 29, 12:00 AM	34.5%	34.5%
Jul 28, 12:00 AM	32.5%	32.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Megaquake in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Megaquake in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between February 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($414.68K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who holds the biggest positions in this market?