Megaquake before August?

Resolved

Yes, settled Aug 2, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.4M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 2, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 2 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 2 Aug 2025, the highest close was 100% on 2 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 29 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 92 points up, to 92.2% on 30 Jul 2025. $1.37M traded over the market's life.

115 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 3, 8:35 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 2 Aug 2025

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Get10	No	37.18K
PnW	No	20K
Luke007	No	12.5K
A620	No	11.25K

10 of 115 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between June 24, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.