Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 74% on 31 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 74% on 31 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 48.5% on 1 Aug 2024. $40.79K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 2:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 31 Jul 2024 – 1 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | 74.0% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0x0757...6382 | Yes | 8 |
| Salimon | Yes | 5.6 |
| Pidarasina | Yes | 2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado is arrested between July 29 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against María and information from María's legal representatives will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maria-corina-machado-arrested-before-october
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 0.77 |
| Geromi | Yes | 0.05 |
| Eme | No | 0.05 |
| story | No | 0.03 |
| greatking | No | 0.02 |
| Otisgbrf | No | 0.02 |
| hot-097 | No | 0.02 |
