Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 19 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 5 Apr 2026.
Across the 189 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 11 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 2.7%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 8% on 30 Jun 2026.
$13.12 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.97K since listing. The order book holds $1.37K, with a 2.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 230 trades, $1.2K bought Yes and $5.09K bought No.
The largest Yes position is plemic95 with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is PassiveStrike with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Jan 2027, 72 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 189 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 24.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| plemic95 | Yes | 1.81K |
| PassiveStrike | No | 1.3K |
| Tukituki | No | 1.11K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027
| gopfan2 |
| No |
| 900 |
| Opulent-Communicant | No | 856.54 |
| Solar Meteor E548 | Yes | 676.89 |
| rushrimper | Yes | 504.52 |
| mag7a | Yes | 272.06 |
| Complex-Chalk | Yes | 210.87 |
| Perypery | Yes | 200.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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