Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.9%. Yes opened at 62.5% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 6 Jan 2026, the highest close was 62.5% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3.1% on 6 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 27% on 5 Jan 2026. $820.03K traded over the market's life.
541 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 6 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 62.5% |
| 6 Jan 2026 | 3.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bink_7 | Yes | 20K |
| Bogus-Whorl | Yes | 16.3K |
| gggg5ben1 | Yes | 8.23K |
| alirb | Yes | 7.27K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of President Nicolás Maduro taken after January 2 is made widely available to the public by January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of Nicolás Maduro becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maduro-mugshot-released-by-monday
| sb911 | Yes | 5K |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 3.95K |
| memeretire | Yes | 3.78K |
| Shipcheap | Yes | 3.73K |
| Clean-Nickel | Yes | 2.9K |
| Bakerx | Yes | 2.57K |
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