
Resolved No on 17 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 54% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 54% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 54 points down, to 0.3% on 16 Jan 2026. $65.85K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 54.0% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Peterabouhachem | Yes | 2.28K |
| LaBefana | Yes | 1.29K |
| Hroptatyr | Yes | 1.28K |
| Marketman10 | Yes | 1.17K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if María Machado is photographed or videotaped wearing a dress or skirt in the physical presence of Trump at any point during their next in-person meeting period between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “meeting period” refers to the full continuous span of time associated with their next in-person engagement. The meeting period begins when Machado and Trump first meet in person and continues through any pauses until at least one of the two individuals departs the country in which that in-person engagement is taking place. If a qualifying meeting period begins before January 16, 2026, but is still ongoing as of that date, this market will remain open until that meeting period concludes. A dress or skirt refers to women's attire where a dress is a one-piece garment covering the torso and legs without a division between the legs, or a skirt is a separate bottom garment that encircles the lower body as a single unified piece of fabric rather than being bifurcated into separate leg openings, as commonly understood in Western formal or semi-formal dress codes. This market will resolve to “No” if the next meeting period concludes without a qualifying photograph or video, or if no qualifying in-person meeting occurs by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/machado-wears-a-dress-or-skirt-during-next-trump-meeting
| aaaasa | Yes | 1K |
| UrsPolar | Yes | 350 |
| MMM0 | Yes | 333.33 |
| Married-Alarm | Yes | 199.99 |
| oneagainstthree | Yes | 196.67 |
| Querulous-Bassinet | Yes | 185.88 |
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