Analytics
Yes is at 13.5%, down 14 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 13 Feb 2026.
Across the 236 daily closes on record from 13 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 25 Jun 2026 and the lowest 6% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14%; a month before, 9%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 44.5% on 25 Jun 2026.
$9.03 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.14K since listing. The order book holds $10.62K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 107 trades, $179.36 bought Yes and $1.83K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Razirback with 643 shares; the largest No position is Hyperlong with 975. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 236 points, 13 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | 27.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hyperlong | No | 975.35 |
| Razirback | Yes | 642.75 |
| polybettor | No | 260 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lisa-murkowski-leaves-the-republican-party-in-2026
| Redgoldsnapper |
| Yes |
| 200 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 180.6 |
| BASSATS01 | Yes | 157.52 |
| Barren-Underpants | No | 100 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 95.61 |
| 0x7a6a1abd | No | 95.61 |
| Brap-Brap | Yes | 93.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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