Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 23% on 22 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 102 daily closes on record from 22 Sep 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 30.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 20% on 14 Oct 2025. $1.76M traded over the market's life.
304 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 22 Sep 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2025 | 23.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GMLighter | Yes | 50.38K |
| jt7 | Yes | 34.66K |
| AngryRhino | Yes | 25K |
This is a market on Lighter FDV
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 23.58K |
| 333777 | Yes | 20K |
| painaka | Yes | 11.39K |
| alll | Yes | 11.11K |
| Crimson Pulse 94A4 | Yes | 10K |
| ggggdd | Yes | 10K |
| Royal Orbit 8A71 | Yes | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
