Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 21 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 26 Aug 2026.
Across the 59 daily closes on record from 26 Aug 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 1 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.7%; a month before, 7.8%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 7% on 4 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by...?”.
$1.74K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $245.74, with a 3.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Twei with 127 shares; the largest No position is FrozenParasite with 466. Ten wallets hold 91.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 26 Aug 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | 27.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 6.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrozenParasite | No | 465.79 |
| Twei | Yes | 127 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 70.99 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/leopold-aschenbrenner-charged-in-2026-20260730180201140
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 61.66 |
| weez-acee | Yes | 61 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 49.99 |
| Bodytobody | Yes | 30.06 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | Yes | 30 |
| PPMT | No | 24.2 |
| Silver Ledger 220B | No | 21.12 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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