Analytics
Yes is at 4.9%, down 13 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 343 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 2.1% on 23 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5%; a month before, 7.1%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 18.6% on 8 Mar 2026.
$565.59K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $54.84K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is YOU-CAN-RUN-BUT-YOU-CANT-HIDE with 230.1K shares; the largest No position is xiehueng with 44K. Ten wallets hold 75.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 343 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 17.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YOU-CAN-RUN-BUT-YOU-CANT-HIDE | Yes | 230.06K |
| xiehueng | No | 43.96K |
| HoneybeeAlliance | Yes | 35.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027
| 🤺Yoon18nom | No | 32.82K |
| BrightTiger | No | 28.37K |
| seyo | No | 26.71K |
| TeemuPukki | No | 14.01K |
| Nadmi | No | 13.47K |
| pol76 | No | 12.35K |
| whhhiew | No | 12.14K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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