Analytics
Yes is at 18.9%, down 56 points from 75% when the market opened on 24 Jan 2026.
The high was 98.5% on 31 Jan 2026 and the low 15.3% on 6 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 18.1%; a month ago, 25.7%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 27% on 30 Apr 2026.
$1B is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”, ahead of $4B at 16.5%.
$8.94K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $433.63, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 148 trades, $1.09K bought Yes and $1.23K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Odd-Relish with 270 shares; the largest No position is XieGuangKun with 498. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 9:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 247 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 75.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 18.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| XieGuangKun | No | 498.38 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 270 |
| greenset | Yes | 223.56 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ledger-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
| daweishashax |
| No |
| 202.43 |
| 13klklas | No | 143.79 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 135.9 |
| kataus.na.hyu | Yes | 100.97 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 41.72 |
| cornishon2 | Yes | 26 |
| peenman | No | 25 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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