Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 1 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 277 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 15.5% on 1 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 9% on 2 Apr 2025. $29.95K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 277 points, 1 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2025 | 15.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Srodt | Yes | 1.62K |
| grrrrrr | Yes | 915.16 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 331.24 |
On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office. The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/le-pen-sentence-reduced-in-2025
| Stm007 | Yes | 327.18 |
| lsinvest | Yes | 300 |
| CineMa | Yes | 269.99 |
| young6clutchzou | Yes | 247.25 |
| JonnyP | Yes | 247.14 |
| HULK | Yes | 220 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 196 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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