Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?No | buy | 48.88 | $0.409 | $20 | Dec 3, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 100 |
| $0.330 |
| $33 |
| Dec 3, 2025 |
 Maduro out by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 62.5 | $0.560 | $35 | Dec 3, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.250 | $25 | Dec 3, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 103.45 | $0.290 | $30 | Oct 22, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?Yes | buy | 630.09 | $0.024 | $15 | Oct 21, 2025 |
 US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?Yes | sell | 160 | $0.894 | $143.1 | Jun 11, 2025 |
 Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?No | sell | 217.5 | $0.999 | $217.28 | Jun 11, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump say "NATO" during Merz events on June 5?Yes | buy | 133 | $0.038 | $5 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.035 | $3.5 | May 30, 2025 |
 Will JD Vance say "Decentralized" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?Yes | sell | 16.66 | $0.999 | $16.64 | May 28, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance say "Blockchain" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?Yes | sell | 44.44 | $0.999 | $44.4 | May 28, 2025 |
| Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?No | buy | 130 | $0.230 | $29.9 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 94.93 | $0.211 | $20 | May 26, 2025 |
 50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?Yes | buy | 115.65 | $0.173 | $20 | May 26, 2025 |
 US-EU trade agreement by July 9?Yes | buy | 71.43 | $0.700 | $50 | May 26, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance say "Gold" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?No | buy | 26.81 | $0.373 | $10 | May 24, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance say "Blockchain" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?Yes | buy | 44.44 | $0.450 | $20 | May 24, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance say "Decentralized" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.600 | $10 | May 24, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance say "Coin" 25+ times during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28?No | buy | 29.41 | $0.340 | $10 | May 24, 2025 |
| US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?Yes | buy | 160 | $0.586 | $93.78 | May 22, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?Yes | buy | 160 | $0.038 | $6.04 | May 22, 2025 |
 Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.190 | $19 | May 20, 2025 |
| Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?No | buy | 87.5 | $0.400 | $35 | May 19, 2025 |
 Will John Mulaney actually fight children?No | sell | 62 | $0.595 | $36.9 | May 19, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.200 | $20 | May 19, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Genocide" this week?No | buy | 15.63 | $0.640 | $10 | May 19, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?No | buy | 18.13 | $0.552 | $10 | May 19, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?Yes | sell | 358.08 | $0.210 | $75.29 | May 18, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No | sell | 503.88 | $0.460 | $231.78 | May 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview?No | sell | 8 | $0.999 | $7.99 | May 17, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview?No | buy | 8 | $0.650 | $5.2 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?Yes | sell | 130.06 | $0.250 | $32.52 | May 16, 2025 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.993 | $99.3 | May 12, 2025 |
 India-Pakistan declare war before June?Yes | buy | 85.71 | $0.035 | $3 | May 11, 2025 |
 Another India x Pakistan ceasefire announced by Friday?No | buy | 41.31 | $0.484 | $20 | May 11, 2025 |
 Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first?No | sell | 40.46 | $0.529 | $21.39 | May 11, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?Yes | buy | 288.14 | $0.278 | $80 | May 10, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No | buy | 301.89 | $0.530 | $160 | May 10, 2025 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.214 | $21.39 | May 10, 2025 |
| Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first?No | buy | 48.04 | $0.624 | $30 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?No | buy | 202 | $0.707 | $142.87 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.270 | $54 | May 8, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: MayNo | buy | 80 | $0.260 | $20.8 | May 7, 2025 |
 Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.620 | $9.3 | May 7, 2025 |
| Will Joe Biden say "Ceasefire" during his May 8 interview?No | buy | 7 | $0.720 | $5.04 | May 7, 2025 |
| Will Joe Biden say "Kamala" or "Harris" during his May 8 interview?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.740 | $14.8 | May 7, 2025 |
| Will Joe Biden say "Francis" during his May 8 interview?No | buy | 7 | $0.760 | $5.32 | May 7, 2025 |
| Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.680 | $10.2 | May 7, 2025 |
| Will Joe Biden say "Democracy" 2+ times during his May 8 interview?No | buy | 33 | $0.297 | $9.8 | May 7, 2025 |