Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 2 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 4 Oct 2026, the highest close was 38.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 4 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 1.8% on 4 Oct 2026. $1.56K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 4 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 38.5% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 760 |
| Loathsome-Kilogram | Yes | 600 |
| boempie | Yes | 80 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Parliamentary elections to elect the 100 members of the Saeima are scheduled to take place in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other”. If any party other than Apvienotais saraksts (AS) wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/latvia-parliamentary-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory-20260930223740402
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 37.35 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 10 |
| gogogo-v3 | Yes | 5 |
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