Analytics
Resolved Mamdani on 3 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Mamdani at 100%. The Mamdani side opened at 50% on 9 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 3 Dec 2025 and the low 50% on 9 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 99.7% on 6 Nov 2025. $42.57K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 4, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Mamdani price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 9 Oct 2025 – 3 Dec 2025
| Observed | Mamdani price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 3 Dec 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| drstonks | Spanberger | 6K |
| PepeSilviaBurner | Spanberger | 155 |
| IV7 | Spanberger | 50 |
| rfffafa321 | Mamdani | 14.03 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 Virginia Governor election. This market will resolve to "Spanberger" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the Virginia Governor election is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican candidates’ final vote shares in each election. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for conducting each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the Virginia Department of Elections).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/larger-margin-of-victory-mamdani-vs-spanberger
| triklozoid | Spanberger | 14 |
| junkis2kamon | Mamdani | 10.02 |
| falton22221 | Mamdani | 8.02 |
| tutrtoj213 | Mamdani | 8.02 |
| quintyn7 | Mamdani | 8.02 |
| huy69 | Mamdani | 7.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
