Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 22% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 95 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 2 Jul 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 30% on 5 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 30% on 5 Mar 2026. $160K traded over the market's life.
162 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 9:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 2 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 22.0% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Kurdhish-Hewal | Yes | 12.93K |
| Volku | Yes | 2.06K |
| Bumpy-Neon | Yes | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kurds-declare-independence-from-iran
| Yes |
| 2K |
| Winner123456789 | Yes | 1.55K |
| prezzi | Yes | 1.1K |
| tomapetru14 | Yes | 922 |
| Humongous-Interior | Yes | 588.1 |
| Eminent-Grill | Yes | 464.4 |
| Worthless-Compromise | Yes | 446.53 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
