Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 45% on 23 Jun 2025 and the low 0.4% on 29 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 10.5% on 24 Jun 2025. $74.21K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 78 points · 15 Apr 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 29.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| ualt | Yes | 485.43 |
| thelongshot | Yes | 52.63 |
| angusing | Yes | 26.32 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is released from custody by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Garcia is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Garcia to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-from-custody-before-july
| Likeafox | Yes | 26.21 |
| tixon | Yes | 6.27 |
| Strong-Pliers | Yes | 4.35 |
| gamerdan2nd | No | 1.37 |
| CineMa | No | 0.01 |
| Haradwaith | No | 0.01 |
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