Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 51% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 51% on 27 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 9% on 28 Aug 2025. $6.35K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 6:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 51.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 133 |
| cossack | Yes | 118.83 |
| tumroilz | Yes | 40 |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 14.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is officially deported from the United States by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count. The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kilmar-abrego-garcia-deported-by-september-30
| lucjj | Yes | 9.09 |
| lissartter | Yes | 2.57 |
| EpicRiv | Yes | 1.19 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 0.98 |
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