Analytics
Yes is at 0.4%, down 1.6 points from 2.1% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 2.3% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.7%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”.
$14.44K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.32M since listing. The order book holds $87.11K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.26K bought Yes and $216.16K bought No; the largest was a $33.16K buy of No at 99.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Mold-Spore with 177.7K shares; the largest No position is tetrase with 136.2K. Ten wallets hold 75.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 2.1% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mold-Spore | Yes | 177.74K |
| ToadLord | Yes | 169.03K |
| tetrase | No | 136.22K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
| meagainsttheworld |
| Yes |
| 92.29K |
| Misty Scout 2F06 | Yes | 85.1K |
| thoodr | No | 76.25K |
| kevtp | No | 55K |
| Dafu0715 | No | 50K |
| Cobalt Sphinx AB2C | No | 42.5K |
| b4k9xj2wh | No | 34.78K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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