Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$347.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 20 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.2%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 11 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2024 to 20 Sep 2024, the highest close was 96.2% on 20 Sep 2024 and the lowest 51.5% on 11 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 82% on 18 Sep 2024. $347.29K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 1:50 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 11 Sep 2024 – 20 Sep 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Sep 2024	51.5%
20 Sep 2024	96.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
RememberAmalek	No	16.06K
0xsunshineIsland	Yes	150.68
Fealo	No	24.39
stray21	Yes	0.1

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.