Will Kamala flip Trump in the polls in August?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 6, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$45.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 6, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 6 Aug 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 66% on 2 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2024 to 6 Aug 2024, the highest close was 99.5% on 6 Aug 2024 and the lowest 66% on 2 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 99.5% on 6 Aug 2024. $45.75K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 3:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 2 Aug 2024 – 6 Aug 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Aug 2024	66.0%
6 Aug 2024	99.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ElectionInsider	No	118.3
magiadtd	No	9.49
bix-178	No	2.27
unndo	No	0.4

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Average shows a positive spread for Kamala Harris at any point by Aug 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source of polling data will be used for market resolution.