Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 16% on 24 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 28 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 12.5% on 29 Oct 2025. $9.09K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 24 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 16.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 249 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 137 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Joseph Aoun will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Lebanon within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/joseph-aoun-out-as-president-of-lebanon-by
| Yes |
| 123 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 94 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 81 |
| ultralex-283 | Yes | 62.5 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 44.65 |
| Rlso | Yes | 44.33 |
| Shipoo | Yes | 44.02 |
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